REAL ESTATE June 8, 2018

Market Expert


From: Paula Higman
Engel & Völkers
890 Main Street 5-101
435-602-8228







MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE LAST 10 MONTHS AND FOR THE NEXT 12-18 MONTHS:
·        Silver Star was sold in August of 2017 and I believe that market conditions have deteriorated in Park City since August of 2017.
·        Furthermore, the PC market is very seasonal, and with the following changes in the economy, I believe PC will have a very slow 2018 Summer/Fall/Winter carrying right through till Spring of 2019
CLASSIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR A DOWNTURN:
·        Ending of quantitative easing
·        Massive selling of US Bonds, taking liquidity out of the market
·        Short and Long Term Yields Increasing
·        Flattening of the debt yield curve
·        Consumer Debt at Historic High
·        Consumer Confidence at 18 Year High
·        Unemployment Rate at 49 Year Low
DETAIL ON THE INDICATORS:
·    Long Term Yields are up nearly 0.70% in the last 10 months, since Silver Star #501 sold, and mortgage rates are up an average of 1.22%
·        Short Term Debt Yields are rising quickly compressing the Yield Curve. This has a huge strain on Short Term Corporate Debt and Consumer Debt
·        Consumer Debt hit a new high of $13 trillion last year, surpassing the previous record set in 2008 by $280 billion.
·        2 year Treasury ended the week at 2.47%.
·        2 year Treasury was at 1.33% when Silver Star sold on 8/31/2017
·        30 Day LIBOR just hit 2.00%, the first reset at 2.00% since November 4, 2008.
·        The next Fed meeting is June 13th and markets have a 100% probability of a hike. 
·        LIBOR should be roughly 2.10% – 2.15% by mid-June.
·        A hike in September would put it around 2.35%.
·        A hike in December would put it around 2.60%.
·        Consumer confidence hit 18 year high in February of 2018. Since 1966 when the US Consumer Confidence hits a new multi-year high, we have seen down turn in the real estate market. (1968, 1978, 1989, 1999, 2007, and now February of 2018)
·        The Unemployment Rate ‘UR’ hit an 18 year low at 3.8%.  In fact, the precise print was 3.755%.  The last time the UR was at 3.7% – 1969.